ITB Study: 5G Predicted to Launch Fastest in 2021

A recent study from the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) estimates that 5G network in Indonesia, it can only be released commercially by the end of 2021.

PT LAPI ITB consultant Ivan Samuels said this estimate was based on two scenarios, namely (1) the basic scenario assuming that 5G key spectrum could be released from 2021-2023; and (2) an aggressive scenario assuming the entire 5G spectrum can be available by the end of 2021.

A number of key spectrums targeted for 5G include 2,3 GHz to be available in 2021; 2,6GHz, 26GHz, and 28GHz spectrum available in 2022; and 3,5GHz and 700MHz spectrum available in 2023.

In his presentation, Ivan said this study offered eight main policy recommendations in order to accelerate the implementation of 5G in Indonesia. Some of them include including 5G as a National Priority Agenda and launching the National Broadband and Connectivity Plan (2021-2025).

Spectrum is one of the main agendas that is often highlighted by the government and stakeholders.stakeholder). This is because some of the gold spectrum for deploying 5G is still far from being available.

For example, a frequency of 700MHz (lowband) is predicted to be the 'golden' spectrum for deploying 5G. Currently, the spectrum is still used for analog TV broadcasts and a migration to digital TV is planned in 2022. The Global System for Mobile Communications (GSMA) predicts the economy Indonesia has the potential to lose $10,5 billion or around Rp142,9 trillion if not deploying 5G at 700MHz.

A number of countries in Southeast Asia, namely Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore have completed the process of shutting down their analog television services. So that the frequencies previously used for analog TV broadcasts can be used by operators to strengthen their 4G services and test 5G pilot networks.

Meanwhile, the ITB report states that the aggressive implementation of 5G in Indonesia can add IDR 2.874 trillion to the country's economy cumulatively from 2021-2030 or equivalent to 9,5 percent of GDP, and IDR 3.549 trillion in 2035 or equivalent to 9,8 percent. of GDP.

"The first step is the hardest step. This is our challenge to prepare strategic planning going forward. The [5G deployment] method is also another challenge because it costs a lot of money to deployment compared to previous technologies," said Ivan at a webinar session held by Axiata Group, Qualcomm, and the Association of Indonesian Telecommunications Providers (ATSI).

The eight recommendations above will be discussed in parallel by the Indonesian 5G Task Force which was formed by Kominfo in 2019. The formation of this Task Force consists of several groups which also involve experts to provide input.

Head of the 5G Task Force Indonesia, Denny Setiawan, targets the official documents for this Task Force to be submitted by the end of 2021 co-existing trials on the 3,5GHz spectrum in October.

"We have implemented a neutral technology policy. Now, if the ecosystem is ready, operators can immediately deploy 5G on the existing spectrum," said Denny on the same occasion.

Learn from 2G, 3G, and 4G migration failures

Furthermore, the Director General of Postal and Informatics Equipment Resources (SDPPI) of the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, Ismail, also revealed four main things that are on the government's priority agenda to accelerate the deployment of 5G.

These four agendas include strategic policies, followed by 5G infrastructure (network, passive infrastructure, and spectrum), 5G ecosystem, and 5G implementation policies (trials, regulations, business models).

"Some are old issues that need to be immediately aligned considering that 5G infrastructure requires high BTS density. To get maximum quality, everything also depends on the availability of spectrum. It's good for operators to have complete spectrum [for 5G titles], from lower, middleand highband," he said.

Reflecting on the mistakes when Indonesia migrated technology (from 2G to 3G, 3G to 4G), he said, the government was trying to avoid market failures, both from supply nor demand. "We don't want telecommunications operators to end up spending a lot of money," said Ismail.

According to him, during the technology migration, the telecommunications industry only prepared the infrastructure behind the supporting infrastructure. As a result, the quality of 4G is not optimal. Therefore. he hopes that 5G infrastructure can be prepared carefully, both network and back hole, between-middle mile, and between Base Transceiver Stations (BTS) so that there are no bottle necking.

Ecosystem and consumer perspective on 5G

Then, Ismail also highlighted the importance of the 5G ecosystem. With this priority, the government seeks to encourage the maker in Indonesia in order to prepare use case local applications before the 5G infrastructure is built. Reflecting on the migration of 2G to 3G and 3G to 4G, the application ecosystem in Indonesia is not strong enough to be monetized.

According to him, Indonesia still lacks killer apps that fits the market. In the end, this network is actually filled by foreign Over-The-Top (OTT) players, such as WhatsApp, Facebook, and Google. "Don't let it be as if we are building infrastructure to give the 'red carpet' to OTT," he added.

Furthermore, the latest 5G study also reveals consumers' perspectives on 5G. This report noted that 68,39 percent of consumers in Indonesia were interested in using 5G once it was released, while 26,56 percent said they would use it after seeing it. experience consumers, and 4,35 percent will only use 5G services if there is no other alternative.

Interestingly, respondents also revealed two other main considerations related to this, namely the high price of devices that can already run 5G networks and consumers are still unsure about the actual quality of 5G. Moreover, if you look at the quality of the 4G network to date, which is still not optimal.

Meanwhile, the youth and millennial segments in Indonesia are estimated to be the largest 5G consumption contributor as much as 80 percent of potential users with an age range of 19-44 years.